Re: MEPBM Improving pop centers

From: Patrick F. McGehearty <patrick@rsn.hp.COM>

Date: Tue, 27 Oct 1998 00:00:00 +0000

In article <19981026185853.17794.00001669@ng138.aol.com>,
RDH206 <rdh206@aol.com> wrote:
>For camps to villages, a good estimate is that emissary skill plus loyalty
>must
>equal at least 80.  For villages to town, skill plus loyalty needs to be in
>the
>90-100 range.  Note that this is also affected by the number of other pop
>centers being improved, as the more demand there is for additional
>residents
>the harder it seems to be to succeed.
>
>Greymist

I have not noticed any correlation between number of attempts and success
rates.  I've had failures with only one try and successes with three tries
in the same turn.

The data I've seen suggests the following is required for a 75% chance of
success:
                  skill+loyalty (with skill perhaps being more important)
camp to village       70 (or maybe  75)
village to town       90 (or maybe  95)
town to Mtown        110 (or maybe 115)
MTown to City        130 (or maybe 135)

Add 10 to your emissary skill relative to those numbers if you want a 95%
chance of success.  Or try it with lower loyalities if you want a long shot.
Of course, low loyalty MTowns are tempting targets for your enemies.

But I've seen streaks where a single nation which should be successful will
have several failures in a row, and others where several marginal attempts
in a row succeed.  Luck of the dice (or computer random number if you prefer).

Those estimates are based on a database of between 30 and 60 improvement
tries (I forget the exact count right now).  To reduce one's estimate error
by one-half, one needs four times as many samples [Basic statistics].  So it
would a really dedicated effort to prove whether my estimate is better or
Greymist's estimate is better.  But at least our estimates give you some
basis for deciding whether to try to improve your camp with loyalty 20 and a
E40 to a village or spend a turn or two doing an InfYour first.

- Patrick McGehearty
patrick@rsn.hp.com

References

MEPBM Improving pop centers
Pontus Gustavsson <pontus@gustavsson.net>
Mon, 26 Oct 1998 00:00:00 +0000
Re: MEPBM Improving pop centers
rdh206@aol.com (RDH206)
Mon, 26 Oct 1998 00:00:00 +0000

Referenced By

MEPBM Improving pop centers
Pontus Gustavsson <pontus@gustavsson.net>
Mon, 26 Oct 1998 00:00:00 +0000
Re: MEPBM Improving pop centers
rdh206@aol.com (RDH206)
Mon, 26 Oct 1998 00:00:00 +0000