Re: The Death of PBM

From: madcentral@aol.com (MadCentral)

Date: Sat, 11 Sep 1999 00:00:00 +0000

>>I agree! This is the thing that has struck me the most since regularly
taking part in this list. You're probably right about starting the
flames again, but I'd be very interested to hear your views if you want
to have a private discussion. I suspect we may have a similar view
(despite the odd disagreement we've hadd from time to time :-))<<

I can't speak for many other GMs, because I don't know their business, but I am
seeing a few very definate trends over the last couple of years and the other
leading GMs I *have* spoken to have confirmed a similar trend in their own
businesses.

I would add for nosy lurkers that this is a reply to Colin.  I'm not interested
in discussing it with doomsayers.  You are welcome to your opinion, these are
simply my own observations in my player base over the last 24 months or so.
I'm also going to be very honest here, so what flames I get will be ignored in
the name of free speaking.

I am seeing a growth in postal mail play, which had for a while started to
slacken a little.  Most of my players have internet access, but a great many
choose to play by mail despite this.  We charge the same for whatever method
you play by, so that probably has something to do with it.  But I find it
interesting that on a level-cost playing field, players prefer to play by mail
with us.

That said, the internet is now a very important part of PBM, for use in
diplomacy, politics and discussion.  I would be very surprised if almost ALL
PBMers did not have internet access and use it to a very high level for their
interaction within the hobby within the next couple of years.

I am seeing a very major upsurge in new players and most of these are coming,
believe it or not, by internet and recommendation.  Mainly because there is no
longer a decent major RPG mag to advertise in here in the UK (which has always
been a good place in the past) and because, while Flagship is a good place to
advertise, most Flagship readers already play our games and so advertising them
is mainly done to support the magazine and as a ''status symbol''.

The current flavour in the hobby is for open-ended large-scale (lots of
players) games.  Close-ended 10-20 player games seem to have slackened and
died, having only a small dedicated following.  Consequently, we are moving
many of our games to the open-ended large-player style.  DungeonWorld, Steel
Fury, Mortis Maximus 2 and Starjammer are all examples of this.  I personally
believe that this is going to be a long-term trend in the hobby, although I
wouldn't stake my life on it, which is why we still support the smaller
close-ended games as well.  Dotting our ''I'''s as it were.

In the future I predict that many smaller commercial companies will simply
disappear and that new ones will not be as common as in the past.  There will
be fewer games and fewer companies running them, but the games there *are* will
be larger, more professional and more reliable than has been seen in PBM's
chequered past.  The larger PBM firms will expand and grow, probably moving
into related industries as well as PBM and this will cause some crossover
between them.

I predict the entire games industry, in all its forms, will grow quite
substantially.  Hobby's which have gone quiet, such as RPGs and Board Games,
will see a sudden growth spurt, which will continue for a long time. Some
people will make a lot of money when this happens, but before it does we are
going to see a very large contingent of commercial companies go to the wall.
Competition is going to get very fierce and those unable to make the grade will
fade away, or limp along in the shadows.

But PBM *could* die, or at least fade almost completely, if a few things
happened.  The hobby has a large number of ''leading figures'' and it the loss
of these people which does more damage to the hobby than anything else.
Unfortunately, some are going to go, for one reason or another.  Hopefully, new
ones will rise to replace them, or the remaining ones will take up the slack.
In my opinion, the biggest threat to PBM as we know it is the loss of our
industry captains.  A lot of these people leave because they listen too much to
doom and gloom and don't look enough at the actual figures, which is a shame.
Some of them just get tired, which can happen in any industry, even one you
love.

I was speaking to somebody last night who thought KJC might close down.  I have
no idea why he thought that, but I would say (probably to everyones surprise)
that I feel that that would be an awful thing to happen.  KJC are our direct
competition and, sometimes, that competition has been quite fiery.  But I would
have to say that their company has been a vital ingredient in PBM for a long,
long time and a blow like that, which I sincerely hope NEVER happens, would
take a lot of rallying to repair.

The reason the PBM hobby is the USA has suffered a bit is for exactly these
reasons.  Leading industry figures have left or been forced to leave and the
hobby has been in flux.  Leading magazines have died.  Newcomers have been
rallying to repair the damage and I think many of them are being quite
successful now, but its a hard job.

So to sum  up;
no, I don't think PBM is dying.
Yes, I think the Internet is becoming vital, but not in the ways some people
here suggest.
No I don't think the online games or free games have any major effect upon our
revenue and, in fact, work quite well, side-by-side, with us.
No, I don't think the paper-play side of the hobby is dying.
Yes, I think there is *some* danger to the hobby BUT
No, I don't think it is insurmountable.

I believe the hobby is still growing, but its changing quietly too.
I find it quite exciting and I'll be here for the duration, god willing,
to see what comes of it and to help it grow however I can.
I know many of my fellow GMs, on this list, will also be there.
So its going to be a fun party.

Steve Tierney
-Madhouse UK

References

Re: The Death of PBM
ColinForbes <timewyrm@suilven.demon.co.uk>
Fri, 10 Sep 1999 00:00:00 +0000

Referenced By

Re: The Death of PBM
ColinForbes <timewyrm@suilven.demon.co.uk>
Fri, 10 Sep 1999 00:00:00 +0000