Re: Happy Asteriod Day

From: Craig Mortell <mortellc@mpx.com.au>

Date: Fri, 05 Nov 1999 00:00:00 +0000

Found the below at
www.newscientist.com/ns/19990529/newsstory4.html

[Archive: 29 May 1999]

World's end

Jeff Hecht
                       THERE IS ONE CHANCE in 10 million that
                       civilisation will end in 40 years' time,
wiped out by a
                       lump of rock one kilometre across.

The possibility of a catastrophic
collision with asteroid
                       1999 AN10 was first raised in early April
by
                       mathematician Andrea Milani of the
University of
                       Pisa in Italy. After further observation
on 15 and 16
                       May by Frank Zoltowski, an amateur
astronomer in
                       Australia, Paul Chodas of NASA's Jet
Propulsion
                       Laboratory in Pasadena, California, and
Brian
                       Marsden of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center
for
                       Astrophysics in Cambridge, Massachusetts,
have been
                       able to calculate the asteroid's orbit
more accurately.

On 7 August 2027, the asteroid will miss
the Earth by
                       somewhere between 37 000 and 800 000
kilometres.
                       But if the centre of the asteroid travels
through a
                       particular region of space just 90 met-res
wide, the
                       Earth's gravity could tug by just the
right amount to
                       put it into an orbit that would bring the
asteroid closer
                       in 2034 and 2039, when it could hit our
planet.
                       However, the one in 10 million chance of
this
                       happening is much less likely than one in
10 000 odds
                       on an unknown asteroid of similar size
hitting the
                       Earth in any 40-year period.

NASA hopes to identify 90 per cent of
near-Earth
                       asteroids measuring more than kilometre
across within
                       the next 10 years. Asteroid 1999 AN10 is a
particular
                       problem because its orbit will cross the
Earth's for the
                       next six centuries, making encounters more
likely.
                       "This object may be haunting us for a long
time,"
                       warns Marsden.

Related sites:
                        Chodas has a picture of the orbit on the
webpage
                       neo.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news017.html
                        Milani's website is at
                       copernico.dm.unipi.it/~milani/resret

From New Scientist, 29 May
1999

MadCentral wrote:
>
> >>Well I am not sure - there are still plenty of factors which could
> deflect the asteroid - however I think I read this in New Scientist. <<
>
> If its the same article in New Scientist *I* read then its not exact at all.
> They were quote a 'slight chance' the asteroid might hit the Earth, since at
> this point there are factors they cannot calculate based on the distance.
> There is a very good chance it'll sail right on by.  Although I saw in another
> Internet Site that if it misses the Earth it could also hit the moon.... which
> would be every bit as bad as it hitting the Earth... <grin>  Out of the Frying
> Pan, huh?
>
> But general concensus is that its pretty unlikely it'll hit Earth.
>
> Steve
Craig

--
Don't forget:
Growing OLD is mandatory(maybe not)
growing UP is optional!!

References

Re: Happy Asteriod Day
Ken Mulholland <Ken@timepatternspbm.demon.co.uk>
Wed, 03 Nov 1999 00:00:00 +0000
Re: Happy Asteriod Day
madcentral@aol.com (MadCentral)
Thu, 04 Nov 1999 00:00:00 +0000