Re: PBM design and formulae - a summary

From: bonar@gnumath.rutgers.edu (Doug Bonar)

Date: Thu, 01 Jul 1993 20:51:56 +0000

In article <20v7ds$755@harder.ccr-p.ida.org> desj@ccr-p.ida.org (David desJardins) writes:

> Graham Matthews <gym@dcs.ed.ac.uk> writes:
> > You are not going to be able to back engineer *exact* formulas from
> > output if either the formulas have some randomness in them, or
> > if the result of evaluating some formula effects the value of
> > one of the parameters to that formula (eg: think about combat - the
> > result of a combat depends on the experience of the combattants,
> > but the experience of the combattants will change as a result of
> > the combat).
>
> That's right.  However I am going to be able to apply a lot of
> sophisticated mathematical and statistical analysis to the problem.  I
> do mathematical and statistical research for a living; I know what I can
> do in this kind of situation.  I can certainly learn a _lot_ more than
> someone who doesn't either write any programs or apply any sort of
> mathematics.

I agree that you will probably get some relationships out of
whatever statistical tools you apply to the data you get.  Over time,
I'm willing to grant that you'll get a set of formulas that start to
approximate the game's formulas.  Assuming that the game's
documentation tells people what effects (at least generally) effect
combat (for example) you will even have formulas that include the
various factors in the game (as well as being just generally good at
prediction).  I assume that even for small effects, with enough data
you (or any statastician) would be able to detect and include the
random effects into the formulas you generate.

I wonder about the actual effect of all this on the game
though.  It will take a large amount of data (if the game's formulas
are complex).  So, your statistics will take some time to come into
play.  During that same time, someone who plays the game has time to
get a feel for how the world works (you will too as well, but your
effort is going into analyzing the data statistically).  In a well
designed game, I'm not sure that your quasi-formulas will give any
real advantage over the other gamer's experiential knowledge.
(Perhaps  that is even a measure of a well designed game.)

In essense, I suppose what I'm saying is that I think that
some people gain the ability to deal with the world by heavy analysis
of what it send them.  Others buy 'rules of thumb' they gain by
working inside the world.  The first type of people will analyze any
game you give them, the second will experiment to see what works,
think about it and act on what they have 'experienced'.  I agree that
the second route is probably not as successful in the long run.  But
the analysis method still has to have the data to analyze generated
somehow.

So, in playing a game w/o the formulas given, you will
experiment with things and analyze the results statistically.  To get
a good model (of the model the game uses), you will need to do a lot
of different things, to get the data for the analysis.
	A non-analyst would play around, but wouldn't get treat the
resulting data the same way.  He probably wouldn't treat the formulas
(if given) in the same way either.  So, he is probably better off (at
least in the short run) with the formulas hidden.

Doug
bonar@math.rutgers.edu

References

Re: PBM design and formulae - a summary
gym@dcs.ed.ac.uk (Graham Matthews)
Wed, 30 Jun 1993 10:33:28 +0000
Re: PBM design and formulae - a summary
desj@ccr-p.ida.org (David desJardins)
Wed, 30 Jun 1993 20:13:49 +0000
Re: PBM design and formulae - a summary
gym@dcs.ed.ac.uk (Graham Matthews)
Thu, 01 Jul 1993 11:15:09 +0000
Re: PBM design and formulae - a summary
desj@ccr-p.ida.org (David desJardins)
Thu, 01 Jul 1993 17:38:04 +0000

Referenced By

Re: PBM design and formulae - a summary
gym@dcs.ed.ac.uk (Graham Matthews)
Wed, 30 Jun 1993 10:33:28 +0000
Re: PBM design and formulae - a summary
desj@ccr-p.ida.org (David desJardins)
Wed, 30 Jun 1993 20:13:49 +0000
Re: PBM design and formulae - a summary
gym@dcs.ed.ac.uk (Graham Matthews)
Thu, 01 Jul 1993 11:15:09 +0000
Re: PBM design and formulae - a summary
desj@ccr-p.ida.org (David desJardins)
Thu, 01 Jul 1993 17:38:04 +0000