Re: Phoenix - killing a SF

From: griffith@netcom.com (Jim Griffith)

Date: Wed, 21 Sep 1994 05:41:55 +0000

dagibbs@qnx.com (David Gibbs) writes:

>In article <3588ne$f16@nntp.Stanford.EDU>,
>In article <george-1409940913270001@cthulhu.starnine.com> george@starnine.com (George Cook) writes:
>>Anyone have a favorite (=higher probability) fleet arrangement for killing
>>a single StarFortress (SF)? Extra CC's are not a big restraint, but the
>>cost of the attacking fleet must be less/equal to 162.

>If you are M'rao -- the best solution is: (PR) PR DW DW LT PD.  The 11 PR PD
>fleet is a 55% chance in one shot.  My fleet is a 69.7% chance of a kill in
>one shot.

Beg to differ.  First off, your fleet doesn't work, because DW's weigh -2,
so the LT can't carry two of them.  Ignoring that, assuming even tech values,
the odds of your solution hitting are, ummm, 1 - (.82)(.82)(.42) = 71.7%.
Using 160 PU, the best solution is (PR) DW DW DW DW DW DW LT HT, which has a
69.6% chance of success.  This is as a M'rao.  Correct me if I'm wrong, please.

Jim

--
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jim Griffith  /--OO--\     | Two great powers are on our side: the power of
griffith@netcom.com        | Love and the power of Arithmetic.  These two are
BEWARE BATS WITHOUT NOSES! | stronger than anything else in the world.

References

Phoenix - killing a SF
george@starnine.com (George Cook)
Wed, 14 Sep 1994 17:13:27 +0000
Re: Phoenix - killing a SF
barry@playfair.Stanford.EDU (Barrett P. Eynon)
Thu, 15 Sep 1994 01:41:02 +0000
Re: Phoenix - killing a SF
dagibbs@qnx.com (David Gibbs)
Fri, 16 Sep 1994 14:04:14 +0000