DM: Favorites Data Base -- Winter FTF Update

From: The Ayatollah of Rock-and-Rollah

Date: Wed, 25 Jan 1995 18:49:09 +0000

(1/25/95)

Here is the latest data on ADM favorites.  Please pass it on to anyone and
everyone who might find it interesting.  Print out some copies and hand
them out in Pheonix!  To random passer-bys!  (Oh, OK.  Random _DM_
players... Sheesh.)

We had a GREAT semi-split, in terms of data collection.  An increase of
107 new warriors, bringing the total to 521 (That's an increase of over
25%!!!).  Keep up the good work!

You gave me the data, I analysed it.  Much thanks to everyone who provided
even 1 warrior.  It looks like we have a reasonable number of
LU,ST,PL,WS,TP,and SL, and are sorta lacking the rest of the styles, in
fact we have almost as many lungers as AB, BA, PR, and PS combined!  So,
if you, or anyone else you know, have/has info for ANY styles, please send
them to me:

email: hitz@cumbnd.bioc.columbia.edu
diplo: Hell's Zeroes in 53, 105, 101, or 102. (PUG)
reg. mail:
	Ben Hitz
	549 Riverside Dr. #4K
	NY, NY  10027

If you diplo or email me some favorites (even one!), I promise to send you
the quarterly updates of this File.

When looking this over, keep in mind that a 1 or 2 warrior difference
probably isn't significant.  As an exercise, think of 'Parry-Strikes you
know that also got the GS', or something similar.  I didn't no no
fancy-schmancy statistical analysis (kinda pointless when your best class
is LU, and you only have 100), so what I say is 'significant' looks
significant to my eyes, and no higher power.

New feature:  I have included 'rhythm ratios', which is my best guess at a
likely distribution for getting a given favorite activity level or
offensive effort.  Totally eyeballed!  This seems to break down at larger
sample size; LU, ST.  Maybe you have a 1 or 2% chance at the rare rhythms,
and they're not verboten.  For example, 1 LU in 101 got a Low AC.

Also, remember that these data have an inherent bias!  All of these
warriors made it to ADM!!!   Perhaps if your LU gets LO-LO-Parry, you have
no hope.  I can't imagine this effect being too large, but it could exist.

Finally, I didn't bother with the 'favorite learn' data yet.  Some people
didn't provide it, and it's not all that useful anyway.

So without further ado...

(OE is offensive effort; AC is Activity level)

Aimed Blows: (5 new)
Total: 25
Weapons: SH(4),DA(3),QS(2),SC(7),LS(3),FI(2),SS(4)
Missing Weapons: LO
Offense Range: low-mod
OE: Vlow(5),Low (14), Mod (6)
OE Ratio: 1:3:1
Activity Range: Vlow-mod
AC: VLow(7),Low(11),Mod(7)
AC ratio 2:3:2
Most common rhythm: low/low (10/25)
Tactics: Slash(4),Bash(3), Riposte(4), Lunge, NT(13)
Silly Combos: LS/Slash, SC/Bash (2), QS/Slash

What can I say?  We need more.  Rather lousy favorite rhythms.  I don't
think I can say they have a favored favorite weapon, although SC _may_ be
your best bet...  (This _may_ be a 'getting to ADM is easier if SC is your
favorite effect'.) 50% got tactics.

Bashers: (14!! new)
Total: 36
Weapons: ML(3),WF(4),WH(6),MA(6),GS(4),HL(5),MS(5),QS(2), LG
Absent: GA,BA, ME?
Offense Range: Mod-Vhi
OE: Mod(7),high(11),vhigh(18)
OE ratio: 2:3:6
Activity Range: vlow-mod
AC: vlow(12),low(15),mod(9)
AC ratio: 4:5:3
Most commmon rhythm: VH/VL (7/36) H/L (9/36) (19/36)
Tactics: Bash(5) Decis NT(30)

Wow!  What a surge of Bashers. Nothing stands out here, either.  Never get
high or very high activities, but that's a common ailment.  Hard to draw a
line in weapons frequency; are you really more likely to get WH than MS? I
would have to say they get slightly better favorite rhythms than SL
Tactics are rare, and that 1 decis favorite +may+ be an error...

Lungers: (19 new)
Total: 101
Weapons: LO(32),SS(17),EP(14),LS(15),SH(22)
Offensive Range: LO-VHI
OE: LO(8),MOD(31),HI(38),VHI(24)
OE ratio: 1:4:5:3
Activity Range: LO-VHI
AC: LO,MOD(26),HI(33),VHI(41)
OE ratio: 0:5:7:8
Rhythms: M/VH (19/101) HI/HI (25/101)  VH/VH (10/101), VH/M (11/101) M/M
(8/101) H/VH (9/101) (19/101)
Tactics: Lunge(13),Dodge(27), Riposte(3),NT(59)
Double Tactics: L/D(4), L/R

Finally crossed the century mark!  OK, it doesn't get any better than
this, so if you're not impressed, better stop reading...
Weapons:  Not sure if there are 2 or 3 classes here.  LO seems
significantly more common.  It looks like SH is more common than LS/SS/EP.
If there is any 'utility' effect, it would have to increase LO, and
decrease SH, (relative to the other 3), so if there are 2 groups, LO and
SH should be about the same 'real' probability.
Rhythms: It looks like, out of (basically) 9 possibly rhythm combinations,
that 2 cover 45% of all cases, and 6 cover 80%.  Interesting that the HI
OEs seem to segregate with the HI ACs, while the rest seem to be evenly
distributed. Compare H/VH (9) to H/H (25). H/H has re-passed M/VH as most
common LU favorite
The riposte favorites appear to be kosher, but the mystery decis fav.
tactic was an error.  About 1/3 chance of a tactic, usually dodge.

Parry-Lungers: (8 new)
Total: 41
Weapons SC(7),SH(7),SS(6),LO(11),EP(7),LS(3)
Offensive Range: VLow-Hi
OE: VL(3),LO(13),MO(15),HI(10)
OE ratio: 1:4:5:3
Activity Range: Low-Vhigh
AC: LO(12),MO(15),HI(7),VH(7)
AC ratio: 2:2:1:1
Most common Rhythm: MO/MO (10/41) L/L (6/41) M/L (3/41) H/L (3/41) (19/41)
Tactics: Lunge(12),Dodge(3),Parry (5),NT(24)
Double Tactics: L/P (2)

Features in the weapon distribution have appeared, with LO ahead of all
challengers, and LS trailing.  No real 'peak' in the rhythm department
either, although a 1 in 4 chance of Mod/Mod is probably significant
(Personally, I'm 2 for 2).  About 1/3 chance of tactics, usually Lunge.

Parry-Ripostes (7 new):
Total: 22
Weapons: SC(2),EP(9),LO(3),SH(3),LS(2),SS(3)
Offensive Range: Vlow-Hi
OE: VL(6),LO(12),MO(2),HI(2)
OE ratio: 2:6:1:1
Activity Range: VL-H
AC: VL(4),LO(4),MO(10),HI(4)
OE ration: 1:1:3:1 ?
Most common Rhythm: LO/MO (10/21)
Tactics: Riposte(3),Lunge, Parry(2), NT(17)
Double Tactics: L/R

Again, not much data.  Run more PRs!!!  Epee seems to be a big favorite
(nyuk, nyuk).  They seem to like LO/MO (50-50!)  Rare tactics.

Parry-Strikes (6 new)
Total: 33
Weapons: SS(3),BA(4),SH(2),BS(6),QS(2),LO(5),SM(2),GS(5),WH(3), EP
Offensive Range: VLow-Mod
OE: VL(12),LO(11),MO(10)
OE ratio: 1:1:1
Activity Range: VLow-High
AC: VL(5),LO(12),MO(10),HI(6)
AC ratio 1:2:2:1
Most common Rhythm: LO/LO (7/33) MO/MO (4/33) (22/33)
Tactics: Decis(6),Responsive(5),Parry(2),Riposte,NT(19)
Double Tactics: D/S

Can't really say anything about weapons (suited to too many), but I think
that's all of them.  That BS thing may be real though, but I'm not sure.
Lousy rhythms.  LO/LO?  Bleah. Well, at least the distributions are nice
and even... Almost 50% got at least one tactic (but that riposte looks
funny, doesn't it?  Can someone confirm?)

Slashers: (13 new)
Total: 67
Weapons: SC(19),EP(12),BS(6),LO(5),BA(4),GA(8),HA(6),SH(7)
Offensive Range: Mod-VHigh
OE: MO(14),HI(23),VH(30)
OE ratio: 1:2:2
Activity Range: Vlow-Mod
AC: Vlow(37),LO(21),MO(9)
AC ratio: 4:2:1
Rhythms: HI/VL (21/67) VH/L (17/67) VH/VL (10/67)  (19/67)
Tactics: Slash(6), NT(61)

Ahead of WS for 3rd most popular style! Seems everyone was right about the
SC all along...  Those 12 EPs may not be a  fluke after all (i.e., really
ARE more common than BS or HA).  Absolutly no activities above moderate,
and only 1/10 moderate.  HI/VL is quite popular... But VH/VL *should* be
the most common, but isn't.  See TPs for more 'correlation'.
Very rare tactics (a nice, round 10% though.)  Or should I say 'tactic'

Strikers: (12 new)
Total: 77
Weapons: GS(2), QS(2), DA(3), SH(3), EP, WH(5), FI(3), GA(4),  SS(7),
BS(8), BA(4), WF(2), ML(3), SM(4), HL(5), HA(3), SC(8), LS(4), MS(2),
MA(4), LO
Offensive Range: Vlow-High
OE: VL(3),LO(21),MO(30),HI(23)
OE ratio: 0:2:3:2 (or 1:7:10:7)
Activity Range: Vlow-VHigh
AC: VL(12),LO(32),MO(22),HI(10),VH
AC ratio: 1:3:2:1:0 (or 10:30:20:10:1)
Rhythms: MO/LO (23/77) LO/MO (10/77) HI/MO (8/77) (36/77)
Tactics: Slash(9), Lunge(7), Bash(7), Decis(10), Responsive(9), NT(36)
Double Tactics: D/S (2),B/S, L/S (2)
Silly Combos: MS/Slash, ML/Slash, QS/Slash, LS/Slash, SH/Bash, LO/Bash,
WF/Slash, SC/Bash, SM/Lunge, WH/Lunge, GS/Slash

Well, this is number 2 in population, but in no danger of catching LU.
Not much to say about weapons, we all pretty much knew you can get them
all (except ME and LG -- I have confirmed they are Marginally suited).
SC, BS, and SS appear to be the most common; but is this a 'utility'
effect?  Only 1 LO out of almost 80.  Although 90+% of managers run ST
10-10, it can't (apparently) be your favorite.  But are you going to go
6-4?  The only style to get all 5 classes of AC favorite.  Accounting for
double tactics, the % chance of getting a tactic is a bit less than 50-50,
and a choice of _all_ offensive tactics, plus, everyone's favorite
RESPONSIVENESS!  Of course, 11 got useless combinations.  (No! Not the
dreaded Quarterstaff Injun Rug-burn-crit!!) I put GS/Slash under silly,
because it seems pretty silly to me.

Total Parries: (13 new)
Total:  57
Weapons: LO(5), GS(7), BA(6), ME(5), SM(2), SH(10), SC(2), LG(6), QS(4),
BS(5), EP(3), LS(2)
Offensive Range: Vlow-Mod
OE: VL(34),LO(18),Mod(5)
OE ratio: 6:3:1 (11:6:2 ??)
Activity Range: Vlow-Mod
AC: VL(29),LO(18),MO(10)
AC: ratio: 5:4:2 ? or 3:2:1
Rhythms:  VL/L (16/57) L/VL (13/57) VL/VL (12/57) (15/57)
Tactics: Riposte(5),Responsive(2),Parry(11),NT(39)

Nice to know that SH and GS might be more common than ME and LG.
Veeeerly-looow/ Looow.  (but at least not 1-1-1!) is the most common.
Interesting that VL is the most common for both AC and OE seperately, but
not together.  Implies (like LU) that there is a correlation put into the
program?  Maybe? About 30% got tactics, and all defensive (big shock.)

Walls of Steel: (10 new)
Total: 62
Weapons: GA(9),BA(8),MS(12),SC(6),QS(6),GS(4),BS(11),WF(6)
Offensive Range:Low-Vhigh
OE: LO(17),MO(28),HI(14),VH(3)
OE ratio: 6:9:5:1 or 1:2:1:0 (25-50-20-5 % ?)
Activity Range:Vlow-Mod
AC: VL(19),LO(26),MO(17)
AC ratio: 6:8:5 (2:3:2 ?)
Rhythms: MO/LO (20/62) LO/VL(9/62) (32/62)
Tactics: Slash(8),Bash(4),Riposte(7),Parry(3),NT(41)
Double Tactics: S/R (2), S/P
Silly Combos: MS/Slash; QS/Slash; WF/Slash; SC/Bash

Last, but not least.  Settles the orignal argument between Gary (Pheonix,
Miles, Sir Boyd, whoever he is this week...) and I.  He seemed to think
that heavy weapons are more common favorites than light ones.  If we take
SC,QS,WF,BS as 'light', that's 29/62, or almost exactly half.  If you take
SC,BS,BA,GA as slashing, and the rest as bashing; that's 34/62, slightly
more than 1/2 (but if you put the 9 GA under 'bash', it switches the
ratio.)  BS and MS are the most common...
No suprises on Rhythms.  Moderate/Low.  The good ol' 5-3-5.
You have a 27% of getting a Mod AC.  That may sound bad, but consider that
BA have a 25%, and SL a 13% (ugh!) chance.
Chance of tactics is average, but if you get Slash, you have a 50-50 shot
of getting a bashing weapon as well...

That's all for now!

PUG
--
I know that it's evil.            | I must
I know that it's got to be.       | yet
  -- "Down Payment Blues"   AC/DC | I cannot  -- Robot Monster
==============================================================
Ben Hitz  hitz@cumbnd.bioc.columbia.edu -
Dept. of Biochemistry and Molecular Biophysics