Re: [fwd] Kill Probabilities From: news-703@dtseven.demon.co.uk (Brian Greenfield) Date: Wed, 20 Aug 1997 00:00:00 +0000 On Wed, 20 Aug 1997 17:31:11 GMT, jacko@jacobean.demon.co.uk (Jacko) wrote: >On Wed, 20 Aug 1997 02:31:42 -0400 (EDT), Haminex@aol.com wrote: > >>Dear Jacko, >> >>Hi I haven't been looking at your page for very log but Iwas wondering if you >>could explain the kill probability equatin given in the standard rules for >>me. I have plugged the numbers in for the 50% example and instead get about >>265% (or 132.5% if its all divided by 2). As I have put my name on the >>waiting list I really need to undersatnd this equation. >> >>Keep up the good work (I can feel my addiction rising already) >>Stuart > >Can anyone answer this question for Stuart? Only if you tell us which game:-) The mention of the "Standard game" leads me to believe it's Galaxy. Clipping the relevant bit from the page in question... >The numbers are calculated so that if a ship with numbers 10 1 10 10 0 >fires at an identical ship, it will have a 50% chance of destroying the >target. If the effective attack is four times as strong, the attack will >always succeed. If the effective defense is four times as strong, the >attack will always fail. The exact formula is: > >p[kill] = log[4] ((Weapons * Weapons Tech) / >(Shields * Shields Tech / mass^(1/3) * 30^(1/3))) + 1 >_____________________________________________________________ >2 The formula's badly formatted and I've never liked the way it was written:( Try the following EffectiveShields = ( 30 / Mass )^(1/3) * Shields * ShieldsTech EffectiveWeapon = Weapon * WeaponTech PKill = 0.5 * ( Log[4] (EffectiveWeapon / EffectiveShields) + 1 ) So, for the given ship Mass = 30 EffectiveShields = ( 30 / 30 )^(1/3) * 10 * 1 = 1^(1/3) * 10 = 10 EffectiveWeapon = 10 * 1 = 10 PKill = 0.5 * ( Log[4] (10 / 10) + 1 ) = 0.5 * ( Log[4] (1) + 1 ) = 0.5 * ( 1 ) = 0.5 Of course, if Stuart *isn't* asking about Galaxy, this is all irrelevant;) -- Brian Greenfield <news-703@dtseven.demon.co.uk> You're reading this in a newsgroup because that's where I posted it. That's where I'd like to read your reply too. DON'T MAIL AND POST! Up