Re: Economics figures - not just prices...

From: Bob Barrett <send@nomorespam.neo.lrun.com>

Date: Sun, 07 Dec 1997 00:00:00 +0000

In Article<660krp$dnm@news3.transpac.net>, <matfa@spamguardacacia.se> writes:

> In the process of making a PBeM, I'm stuck trying to figure out my
> economics model. I've found long lists of prices for different items,
> but that's not sufficient in my game - since manufacturing will be
> an intricate part of the it the prices must be emergent of the
> resources
> used and work needed...
>
> What I'd really need to know is stuff like how much wood does
> an acre of forrest give? How much planks can be made from
> that? How many planks are used for a boat or a house?
> Also - how much work is required cutting the trees, making the
> planks, building the house? How much energy?
>
> That's just the start - how much wheat does an acre produce?
> How much would renting an acre of land be? How much work
> is it harvesting this wheat - and how much flour would the
> harvested wheat produce?
>
> [btw - if you have the answers to any of these questions, please
> send!]
>
> I realize that I'm neck deep in research here - something I don't
> have the time to do...[lazy too ;) ]
>
> Does anyone in PBM land know *where* I could obtain these
> figures, short of asking a farmer/woodcutter/factory worker/ so on?
>
> Another problem is that the game will probably take place in eihter
> the 13th centure (there's a lot of pricelists from that era) or the
> early centuries of industrialization - which seems more apropriate
> for a economics game.
>
> Any help would be apreceated!
>
> Mattias
>
>
	You are asking two types of questions here, about productivity and
prices.  Prices depend on supply and demand.  Supply depends on natural
resources, and also on market prices.  At higher prices, people will work
harder to gather or produce the commodity.  For example, when petroleum prices
go up, unprofitable oil wells become profitable again, and the supply expands.
 If the price of lumber rises, people will bring it to market from farther
away.
	Productivity is a different matter.  Crop yields (and therefore,
cropland rental rates) depend on many factors: soil fertility, pests,
diseases, the breed of plant, and the weather.  Famine conditions (as in North
Korea, for example), would be expected to promote a greater allocation of
labor and other resources to the agricultural sector, giving a higher harvest
the next year.  But bad weather or a potato blight can destroy everything -
life is not always fair.
	Your question of how large an area of forest is needed to build a
house has a simple answer: It depends.  How large a house?  How wide must the
planks be?  What is the distribution of species and sizes within the forest?
Is this a virgin forest with a few large trees far apart, or second growth
with lots of smaller trees closer together?  Is the forest managed for
sustained yield (which requires a stable political system and the absence of
poachers, among other things)?  Or is it a place where anyone can cut wood at
any time (which would rapidly deplete the usable trees and leave the ugly
crooked ones)?
	For most PBeMs of the RPG variety, it is enough to outline the
political and economic situation, as I did for my 4-A Foray PBeM:
	<http://www.geocities.com/Area51/9679/4a-3.html>
Then you can figure reasonable prices for other things based on the examples.
If a loaf of bread is $0.10, a horse should cost way more than $10, and a pair
of shoes should cost less than $10.
	If you want to make this an economic game, you can make it simpler by
limiting the number of commodities.  For example, use generic planks instead
of planks of pine, spruce, fir, cedar, redwood, and plywood.
	To find historic commodity prices from other centuries, try to find
the academic journal Agicultural History.  I'm sure there are others, but I
don't know their names.
	Energy/labor prices depend on technology as well as supply and demand,
so choose your era and do your research.  If you want others to do your
research for you, you could ask scholars who hang out in other news groups.
Or you could pay them.  If your demand for data is great enough, a supply will
appear on the free market.

Best wishes,

Bob Barrett

References

Economics figures - not just prices...
"Mattias [remove spamguard] Fagerlund" <matfa@spamguardacacia.se>
Tue, 02 Dec 1997 00:00:00 +0000