Re: PBM_ME Cloud Lord

From: Patrick F. McGehearty <patrick@rsn.hp.COM>

Date: Sun, 18 Jan 1998 00:00:00 +0000

In article <34C1026D.292A@algonet.se>, RedEyeJoe  <mrredeye@algonet.se> wrote:
>Scott Burglass wrote:
>>
>> It seems as if most people think that there is a possibility of success
>> with the previously mentioned scenario. However, no one has said what they
>> think the odds are: 1 in 10, etc...
>> Also, I have heard that one wants his assassin to be about 20 points higher
>> then your intended victim. What are everyone's thoughts on that. Also, I
>> have heard that it is harder to succeed with assassinations in someone
>> elses pop center; what is the modifier for that. And, what if he is an army
>> commander? I know that these would simply be your personal rules of
>> thumb...But I'd like to know your thoughts.
>> Have a great weekend:)
>> Scott---  Doggie boy in current 1650campaign
>>
>Have anyone any idea about what is harder and easier of the orders of
>the same difficult class?
>I mean, what's hardest thing to do?
>Assassinating, Kidnapping or Sabotaging fortifications for example
>
>I lost Ji Indur once when he tried to sabotage the citadel at Minas
>Arnor at a rank of 43A/30S.
>No armies present.
>
>One thing about this debate that has been going on about Ji,
>anyone CAN be lucky but usually a agent is not gonna work ok until he
>hits 55-60, 50 with stealth above 20.
>I have a tendancy to lose agents if their are trying to assassinate
>someone before they are in those ranks.
>Bad luck or?
>
>RedEyeJoe

In my circle of players, there is a concensus that Kidnapping is harder than
Assassination.  The difficulty of sabotaging fortifications depends on the
quality of the fortification, and your loss of Ji supports that.  As the
Cloud Lord, it is important to remember that your +20 agent skill bonus only
applies to kills and kidnaps.  You get no bonus for theft or sabatoge.
I would not expect an A58 (43+30/2) to have much chance of taking down a
citadel.

My rough estimates are for reasonable chance, but still have significant
chances of failing:
theft (unguarded) - A40 or better to have reasonable chances
theft (guarded) - more than double the skill of the guard (limited data)
kill (unguarded, not army commander) - A60
kill (guarded) - double skill of guard and A70 or better.
kill - army commander - add 20pts to requirements for non-army commander

There are several factors which affect these chances:
Attitude of nation being targeted - if they hate you, it gets harder
if they are friendly to you, it is easier.  Why steal from a friend, you
ask?  Because low rank agents get good training benefits when they succeed.
A little mutual theft can help you both get those begining agents trained
quickly.

Nationality & Loyalty of popcenter - may have an effect, certainly affects
chances of target knowing whether your agent is in town, thus may affect
guard orders.

Highest natural Skill Rank of target - if you fail and are injured by the
target, the amount of damage done is exactly the highest natural skill rank
of the target (before artifacts are added in).  Thus, attempting a kill
order on a high ranker when you are already wounding is risky business.
It also has been suggested that the target's chance of avoiding the kill
depends on their rank.  That may be true, or it may be that people remember
more clearly when a high rank avoids a kill, while low ranks that are not
important to the flow of the game (easy come, easy go) are not remembered.

All of this complexity makes it very difficult to come up with anything like
precise formulas for determining agent success.  And sometimes desperation
forces unusual acts that pay off.  In a recent game, I moved an A54 in the
Dragon Lord backup (I was on FP side) (3822).  An ally had doubled Khamul
who was known to have a high enough agent rank (due to artifacts) to be
killing people.  Khamul moved to 3822 on the same turn.  I figured my
character was likely to be killed by Khamul anyway, so I tried a long shot
and issued the kill order for Khamul.  It worked, perhaps because I started
as a neutral and the Dragon Lord had not gotten around to downgrading
relations with me.  So each of us has an opportunity to do some
experimenting and find out what works for you.

- Patrick McGehearty

References

Re: PBM_ME Cloud Lord
"Scott Burglass" <pheltapi@worldnet.att.net>
Sat, 17 Jan 1998 00:00:00 +0000
Re: PBM_ME Cloud Lord
RedEyeJoe <mrredeye@algonet.se>
Sat, 17 Jan 1998 00:00:00 +0000
PBM_ME Cloud Lord
"Scott Burglass" <pheltapi@worldnet.att.net>
Sat, 10 Jan 1998 00:00:00 +0000
Re: PBM_ME Cloud Lord
Cel@Nospam.com
Thu, 15 Jan 1998 00:00:00 +0000